瓦尔代演讲：世界“五难并行”危机，70年来罕见

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编者按：2022年5月17日，俄罗斯顶级智库“瓦尔代辩论俱尔部”第二届中亚年会线上线下召开并全球直播。中国人民大学重阳金融研究院执行院长王文受邀在主题为“地缘政治挑战与共同发展”的第一环节进行主题演讲并问答。同场讨论的还有巴基斯坦议会秘书长Muhammad Javed、乌兹别克斯坦外交部信息分析中心主任Daniyar Kurbanov、伊朗驻俄罗斯前大使Mehdi Sanaei、塔吉克斯坦科学院哲学、政治与法律所所长Rustam Haydarov等。以下演讲内容还发表在5月17日《环球时报》英文版变局专栏中。人大重阳推荐现场实录与文字记录如下：

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王文在5月17日瓦尔代俱乐部第二届中亚年会主题演讲视频

当前世界正面临70多年来最糟糕的发展困境，我称之为“五难并行”的人类危机。

疫情、气候变化、粮荒、战争和通胀，这五大导致人类灾难的因素在同一个时间段爆发，是当前世界变得如此糟糕的直接原因。

据WHO统计，两年来的新冠疫情，导致“超额死亡”人数已超过1500万。有数据显示，2022年可能是人类历史上最热的十个年份之一，会有500万人死于气候变化。根据联合国粮农组织的报告，2021年有近2亿人将面临粮食危机。2022年会更糟糕。根据联合国难民署声明，俄乌冲突导致超过500万人逃离乌克兰，酿成二战以来欧洲最严重的难民危机。

关于通胀，各类研究报告就更多了，因为涉及欧洲、美国。从3月以来，超过7%、甚至8%的通胀率，很有可能使欧洲、美国导致爆发一场远比2008年金融危机更严重的经济衰退。

除此之外，还有很多严重的困境都是二战结束以来从没有遇到的。欧洲面临着二战以来最危险的安全危机。美国将金融武器化，没收俄罗斯将近1万亿美元的海外资产，破坏了金融本应有的信任规则，造成了二战结束以来最恶劣的金融文明倒退。经济全球化受到了二战以来最大的冲击。

越来越多人警告，第三次世界大战可能会爆发，核战争也在边缘。但人们还在梦游，最大的梦游者是美国。

本次会议议程截图

对此这些恶化的现象，作为全球综合国力最强的美国以及美国所领衔的北约，非但没有进行反思，反而仍把安全放在国际议题的首位。北约即将进行第六次东扩，纳入瑞典与芬兰，还邀请了日本、韩国参会，出现亚洲化的新趋势。刚刚结束的美国与东盟的峰会，仍然在强调安全议题。

美国一直在强调自诩为国际社会的领袖。如果美国真的还在领导着世界，那么，我们有必要质问美国政府、质问白宫：21世纪以来世界爆发了阿富汗战争、伊拉克战争、利比亚战争、叙利亚战争还有现在的乌克兰战争，美国的领导力是不是需要负最大的责任？ 

还令人遗憾的是，如此严重的人类发展现状，垄断着国际舆论话语权的西方媒体、智库并没有给予足够的关注。现在的西方媒体、智库只把关注力放在如何制裁俄罗斯、如何支援乌克兰，还在把事态往更坏的场景去推。这是缺乏远见的。

现在，最需要的是，大家应该真诚地坐在一起讨论如何应对这类危机，就如同1945年讨论二战后的世界、2008年应对国际金融危机那样。

在这方面，美国应该有大国的样子。作为全球实力最强的美国应该有对人类的公德心，发挥带头作用。美国当前组织的所谓民主峰会、抗疫峰会，总是带着意识形态与地缘政治的考量，不可能获得世界的真正支持。如果没有中国、俄罗斯与广大新兴国家、发展中国家的支持，美国将会被世界孤立，更不可能重现过去的荣光。

只有30多国支持美国制裁俄罗斯，国家数量与人口都仅仅占世界的15%。这种制裁不可能持续，既解决不了当前的危机，也会伤害制裁方自己，更无助于世界。

世界需要坐在一起商量。我们需要重拾过去那些好的国际治理传统。比如，以联合国宪章为准则的国际安全秩序，应该得到重新遵守，以G20为宏观经济金融政策协调的机制应该被继续遵循，以WTO为争端与规则协商平台的贸易机制也应被继续尊重。但现在，似乎美国成了国际体系的最大革命者。

总之，我们需要冷静、理性、协商，而不是焦躁、疯狂与战争，才是防止当前事态变得更糟的首要办法。

会议现场

以下为问答环节：

问题：

你刚才讲到全球的糟糕状况，那么，这对中亚来说意味着什么？乌克兰的情况能给中亚以哪些启示？

王文

美国虽然仍是综合国力最强的国家，但已没有世界领导力，越来越少的国家认可美国的领导。有一个规律性的认识，那就是区域安全不需要美国。从二战结束以来，任何区域安全的解决进程中，只要有美国的参与，这个地区总会越来越混乱。我总结的规律是，区域要稳定与安全，需要让美国走开。如果想要参与，那么需要提供智慧与经济援助，而不是提供武器和离岸平衡。中亚局势出现了难得的稳定，这是相当不容易的。中亚需要有各自独立的发展，融入欧亚经济一体的布局中。现在，俄罗斯欧亚经济联盟与中国的一带一路倡议，与中亚国家的发展目标是吻合的。我们需要持续这个趋势，避免地区动荡发生。只有稳定，国家才有未来。

问题：

你提到的全球困境令人印象深刻。中国能够为全球困境做些什么？美国人说，中国是威胁，并加紧对中国的打压，台湾问题会爆发新的战争吗？你怎么看？

王文

是这样的，中国希望能够为解决全球困境做出贡献。中国提供“一带一路”倡议、全球发展倡议、全球安全倡议，希望俄乌冲突尽快解决，恢复和平。过去40年，中国是全世界唯一没有发动战争、参与战争的大国，是世界最追求和平的大国。2013年起，中国成为全世界最大贸易国；2020年起，中国还成为全世界最大的海外投资国。这些都是中国对世界做出重要政治、经济贡献。关于你讲到的美国的遏制中国政策，中国是高度重视的。我们认为，美国正希望以在乌克兰战争的形式在中国台湾海峡再挑起一场战争。中国有捍卫主权的坚定意志，正如2018年美国对华贸易战、最终美国失败那样，美国挑衅中国，一定会让其付出对等的代价。

问题：

俄乌冲突是否加速全球脱钩？如何防止“去全球化”？

王文

我所在的智库本周五即将推出一份报告，叫《大裂化：全球经济新冷战的评估》。这份报告认为，全球经济新冷战已开始。俄罗斯与西方已在脱钩。中美之间脱钩的因素也在加大。这对经济全球化而言是非常不妙的。当然，也有一些好消息。比如，RCEP在2022年已正式生效，亚洲经济区域化的速度在加快。全球化正在变得更加区域化。欧亚经济一体化是未来的趋势，通过中国、中亚、俄罗斯的合作，可以推动更加广泛与互利的安全、经济、能源一体化进程。至于如何防止去全球化，想让全球化持续，首先要恢复和平。其次如我刚才所说，要发挥大国作用，尤其是联合国与G20的作用。当然，目前看来，这很难。

以下为英文版

文章刊于5月17日《环球时报》英文版版面截图

The world is facing the worst development dilemma in more than 70 years, I called it as a human crisis with five parallel disasters.

Pandemic, climate change, food shortage, war and inflation – the five factors that could lead to human disasters – broke out in the same period. This is the direct reason why the world is currently in such a terrible status.

According to the WHO, nearly 15 million more people died during the pandemic than would have in normal times. A database said that 2022 will rank among the 10-warmest years on record. There is also a study showing that climate change acceleration is responsible for 5 million deaths globally every year. An annual report launched earlier this month by the Global Network Against Food Crises, revealed that nearly 200 million people suffered from acute food insecurity in 2021. 2022 will be much worse. The UN High Commissioner for Refugees reported that more than five million Ukrainians have been forced to flee their country in less than two months given the ongoing conflict, the worst refugee crisis since the end of World War II.

When it comes to inflation, there are more various research reports, which touch upon the situation Europe and the US. Since March, the inflation rate, which has been higher than 7 percent, even over 8 percent, could likely cause an economic crisis far worse than the 2008 financial crisis in Europe and the US. 

There are also unprecedented serious dilemma, which we have not encountered since the end of WWII. Europe faces its most dangerous security crisis since the end of the WWII. The US has weaponized finance and seized quite a number of overseas assets of Russia, undermining the rules of trusts in finance, causing the worst regression of financial civilization since the end of WWII.

More and more people are warning that the third world war may break out. Nuclear war is also on the brink. But people are still sleepwalking. The biggest sleepwalker is the United States.

In response to these deteriorating phenomena, the US, with the world’s strongest comprehensive national strength, and NATO, led by the US, have not reflected on these issues, but have put security at the top of their international agenda. NATO is about to carry out its sixth eastward expansion, absorbing Sweden and Finland as new members. It has also invited Japan and South Korea to participate in the upcoming summit, showing a new trend of the Asianization of NATO. In the just-concluded summit with ASEAN members, the US was still emphasizing security issues.

The US has been stressing its self-proclaimed leadership of the international community. If the US is still leading the world, we need to ask the US government and the White House: Since the 21st century, the wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria broke out. Now the Ukrainian conflict is going on. Shouldn’t the US leadership take the greatest responsibility?

Unfortunately, Western media and think tanks, which monopolize the discourse power of international public opinion, have failed to pay enough attention to such a serious situation of human development. However, they only focus on how to sanction Russia and how to support Ukraine, pushing the situation to a worse scenario. This is shortsighted.

Now, what is needed most is sitting together sincerely and discuss how to deal with these crises, just as how the world discussed the post-WWII world in 1945 and the international financial crisis in 2008.

The US should play its role of a great power. As the most powerful country in the world, the US should have a public morality toward mankind. The so-called democratic summits and Global COVID-19 Summit, organized by the US, carry ideological and geopolitical considerations, and it is thus impossible to gain real support from the world. Without the support of China, Russia and the vast number of emerging and developing countries, the US will be isolated from the world, and it is even less possible to regain its past glory.

Only around 30 countries support the US in sanctioning Russia. This kind of sanctions cannot be sustained. It will not solve the crisis, but will hurt the sanctioning party itself, not to mention helping the world.

The world needs to sit together and negotiate. We need to revive the good international governance traditions of the past. For example, countries should reaffirm their commitment to the international security order based on the UN Charter. The G20 as the macroeconomic and financial policy coordination mechanism should continue to be followed, and the WTO, as the negotiation platform for disputes and rules, should continue to be respected. But now, it seems that the US has become the biggest revolutionist in the international system.

In short, calm, rationality and negotiation, rather than restlessness, madness and war, are the first ways to prevent the current situation from getting worse.

Q:

You just talked about the bad situation in the world, so what does this mean for Central Asia? What enlightenment can the situation of Ukraine give to Central Asia?

Wang Wen

Although U.S is still strongest power, US has no global leadership, fewer and fewer countries identified it. We need to have a regular understanding that regional security does not need the US. Since the end of World War II, as long as the United States participates in any regional security settlement process, the region will always become more and more chaotic. The rule I summed up is that if the region wants stability and security, it needs to let the U.S go away. If U.S want to participate, you need to provide wisdom and economic assistance, not weapons and offshore balance.The situation in Central Asia has shown rare stability, which is not easy. Central Asia needs to develop independently and integrate into the layout of Eurasian Economic Integration. At present, the Belt and Road initiative and Russia's Eurasian Economic Union is in line with the development goals of Central Asian countries. We need to continue this trend and avoid regional unrest. Only when there is stability, can a country have a future.

Q：

The global dilemma you mentioned is impressive. What can China do for the global dilemma? Americans say that China is a threat and step up the crackdown on China. Will a new war break out on the Taiwan issue? What's your opinion?

Wang Wen

Well, China hopes to contribute to solving the global dilemma. China provides the “the Belt and Road” initiative, the global development initiative and the global security initiative, and hopes that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will be resolved as soon as possible and peace will be restored. Over the past 40 years, China has been the only major country in the world that has not waged war and participated in war. It is the world’s largest country that pursues peace. Since 2013, China has become the world’s largest trading country; Since 2020, China has also become the world’s largest overseas investor. These are China’s important political and economic contributions to the world.We attaches great importance to the US policy of containing China. We believe that the U.S is hoping to start another war in the Taiwan in the form of war in Ukraine. China has a strong will to defend its sovereignty. Just like the US trade war against China in 2018 and the final failure of the US, the US will certainly pay a fair price if it provokes China.

Q:

Does the conflict between Russia and Ukraine accelerate global decoupling? How to prevent "de globalization"?

Wang Wen

My think tank is about to launch a report on Friday called "the great crackdown: an assessment of the new cold war in the global economy". The report believes that a Global economic new cold war has begun. Russia is already decoupling from the West. The factors of decoupling between China and the US are also increasing. This is very bad for economic globalization.Of course, there is some good news. For example, RCEP has officially entered into force in 2022, and the speed of Asian economic regionalization is accelerating. Globalization is becoming more regional. Eurasian Economic Integration is the future trend. The cooperation among China, Central Asia and Russia can promote a broader and mutually beneficial process of security, economy and energy integration.As for how to prevent de-globalization, if we want globalization to continue, we must first restore peace. Secondly, as I said just now, we should play the role of a major country, especially the role of the United Nations and the G20. Of course, at present, this is very difficult.

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中国人民大学重阳金融研究院（人大重阳）成立于2013年1月19日，是重阳投资向中国人民大学捐赠并设立教育基金运营的主要资助项目。

作为中国特色新型智库，人大重阳聘请了全球数十位前政要、银行家、知名学者为高级研究员，旨在关注现实、建言国家、服务人民。目前，人大重阳下设7个部门、运营管理4个中心(生态金融研究中心、全球治理研究中心、中美人文交流研究中心、中俄人文交流研究中心)。近年来，人大重阳在金融发展、全球治理、大国关系、宏观政策等研究领域在国内外均具有较高认可度。

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